The future of fertiliser

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The ‘Future of Fertiliser’ report represents the opinions of a diverse group of 74 agricultural experts from around the world who we asked to look 25 years into the future and tell us how agriculture will have changed by 2050 and what needs to happen in the fertiliser industry to keep it successfully and sustainably feeding the world. Our experts included industry leaders, farmers, fertiliser producers, food companies, academics, policy influencers, analysts, investors, and other stakeholders representing different parts of the food value chain.

The world in 2050

Our interviewees told us that by 2050:

Regulation will have driven a transition

Regulation will have driven a transition in sustainable agricultural practices, though the pace and scale of the transition would depend on frameworks to internalise the environmental costs of modern agriculture.

Financial incentives will have evolved

Financial incentives will have evolved to encourage more sustainable agricultural practices – a marked change, as agricultural subsidies have historically incentivised unsustainable practices.

Agricultural practices will prioritise the importance of soil health

Agricultural practices will prioritise the importance of soil health to drive long-term yield and improve crop quality. This will result in the growth of regenerative agriculture.

Agri-tech innovation will be adopted

Adoption of innovative agri-tech solutions will have accelerated with AI and robotics driving change particularly in high-value crops. Adoption of sustainable fertilisers will play a crucial role, but only if they are affordable, scalable, and easily adopted by farmers.

There will be increased collaboration

Collaboration across the agricultural value chain will have increased – especially among farmers, policymakers and food manufacturers. However, concerns about deglobalisation and economic protectionism could hinder broader industry-wide collaboration.

We have to be very efficient with the land that we currently use, and apply nutrients so that we get the most output per unit of input, with the minimum amount of emissions.

Alzbeta Klein CEO, International Fertilizer Association

To build the thriving food system that our experts foresee, our panel highlighted the need for the fertiliser industry to adapt – its thinking, structures, and rules. Fertilisers and the nutrients they provide will continue to underpin agricultural success (and we cannot feed the world without them), but how we think about their application must evolve, to preserve our resources for the long term.

Specifically, our panel said the industry needs to:

Redefine the metrics for business success – move away from a sole focus on yield, and create frameworks to measure and value soil health, emissions, food nutrient content and the impact on nature.
Prioritise scalable crop nutrition solutions with proven agronomic effectiveness across a broad range of crops, to maximise return on investment.
Tailor solutions and incentives to the real needs of farmers.
Focus more on soil health.
Internalise the environmental costs of chemical fertilisers to define the real value of sustainable alternatives and incentivise their use.
Work with farmers to build trust.

Above all else, our interviewees emphasised the need for a greater spirit of collaboration, openness, and humility on the road to 2050. Real progress, they said, hinges on fostering new and genuine partnerships between previously siloed stakeholder groups, to move towards a more resilient and sustainable future.

Together, we can contribute to a future where everyone has access to the food they need, produced in a way that respects and protects our planet, for generations to come. We invite you to join the conversation. A future with an abundant, sustainable food system is not promised; we must build it together.

Duncan Wanblad Chief Executive, Anglo American